Ecological Threat Report 2024, Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)

The report finds that countries with higher levels of ecological threat are more likely to have higher levels of conflict, and lower levels of societal safety and security. Without concerted international action, ecological degradation will continue to accelerate, intensifying a range of social issues, including malnutrition and forced migration. When combined with further stressors, such as demographic pressure and poor governance, the likely result will be an increase in conflict. However, with appropriate action, involving micro water capture, enhanced agricultural yields and better local governance, the effects can be substantially mitigated. The ETR covers 207 countries and territories, of which 50 face high or very high levels of ecological threat. IEP estimates almost two billion people will live in these countries by 2050. At present, they are home to just under 1.3 billion, and seven in ten of these people reside in countries with low levels of societal resilience, highlighting that whole-of-system approaches are needed to rectify the deteriorating situation. The resilience of many of these at-risk communities is already being tested: global food prices remain almost 25 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels.