Governance Innovation and Implementation in the Cities Mission - Anticipatory Governance in City Climate Planning and Policy

This report examines how four European Mission cities are integrating anticipatory governance approaches into their climate planning to effectively manage uncertainties in their pursuit of climate neutrality: Umeå, Tampere, Valencia, and Parma. Participating in the EU Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities Mission and the Adaptation Mission, these cities implement forward-looking strategies such as strategic foresight and scenario planning, risk and vulnerability assessments, and adaptive management frameworks. Although all cities have undertaken foundational risk assessments, particularly focused on economic, financial, and social dimensions, more complex risks like geopolitical disruptions remain less integrated into their planning processes. The comparative analysis indicates varying maturity levels in anticipatory governance practices across the cities, with scenario planning embedded to differing extents and formal adaptive management still uncommon. Shared challenges include limited resources, data gaps, institutional fragmentation, and communication hurdles. The report recommends enhancing governance structures through clearer adaptive management processes and trigger points, identifying robust mitigation strategies viable across multiple scenarios, diversifying solution approaches, and strengthening inter-city cooperation and multi-level governance. Overall, integrating anticipatory governance practices into urban climate planning equips cities to better manage future uncertainties and maintain resilient pathways toward climate neutrality.